Bitcoin : J'Attends 5 Dates. La Première Est Demain

Five Decisive Dates for Crypto Markets: A Macro Analysis

This video presents a macro-economic roadmap for cryptocurrency investors, identifying five specific dates that will determine whether the current bull market continues or collapses. The analyst combines US inflation data, Federal Reserve policy, regulatory developments, and political events to assess the near-term trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

📊 Inflation Data: September 10–11

The week opens with two critical inflation reports that will shape Fed expectations:

• PPI (Producer Price Index) – Released tomorrow, September 10, at 2:30 PM Paris time. The consensus estimate is 0.4% month-over-month, up from a previous 0.0%. A higher-than-expected reading would signal rising producer costs, which typically precede consumer inflation.
• CPI (Consumer Price Index) – Released Friday, September 11. Expectations point to a rise from 0.1% to 0.4% month-over-month, with year-over-year inflation stabilizing at 3.4%. Core inflation is also expected to hold steady. Any upside surprise could force the Fed to maintain or raise rates.

The analyst notes that real-time inflation tracking (via Trueflation) shows stagnation over the past month, which would be favorable if reflected in official figures. However, rising oil prices due to the Iran–United States conflict remain a concern. Oil persistently above $80 would reignite inflationary pressure, undermining the case for rate cuts.

🏛️ FOMC Meeting: September 16

The Federal Reserve’s rate decision is the second major catalyst. Markets currently price a 58% probability of a rate hike—a significant shift after years of stability or cuts. The inflation data released earlier in the week will largely dictate the outcome. A hike would be negative for cryptocurrencies and could trigger a Bitcoin pullback.

Equally important is the release of the dot plot, the Fed’s own macroeconomic projections for 2026–2027. This will be the first dot plot under new Fed President Kevin Wars, who took office in May 2026. The analyst plans to dissect these projections, as they will signal the Fed’s long-term stance on rates, growth, and employment.

⚖️ Clarity Act Vote: September 15

A potentially game-changing regulatory event is the Clarity Act, which may be voted on September 15. Originally delayed from August, this legislation would overhaul US crypto regulation and could influence global standards. If passed, it could single-handedly sustain the bull market. If postponed again, the next window would be October or November—but that creates risk, as explained below.

🗳️ Midterm Elections: November 3

The analyst warns that the November 3 midterms are the date “no one looks at,” yet they may be the most decisive. Control of Congress will be contested. If Democrats gain a majority, they could move to impeach President Trump, whose administration is pro-crypto. A shift in power would likely delay or kill the Clarity Act and introduce significant political uncertainty for digital assets.

📉 Macro and Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Beyond the calendar, the analyst reviews key market conditions:

• The US dollar is weakening, which is supportive for Bitcoin.
• The VIX remains low, indicating limited market fear.
• Money supply growth has turned positive since July 2026, with liquidity effects expected to reach crypto markets around October 20.
• Bitcoin spot ETF purchases are showing strong inflows, supporting the price.

Technically, Bitcoin is trading below a key resistance level near the May 2026 high. The analyst notes a bearish divergence—price is rising while momentum weakens—suggesting the rally may be losing steam. A potential head-and-shoulders pattern could lead to a pullback toward $67,000 before the bull market resumes. Upside targets include $83,000 and $85,000, with support near $75,000 and $62,000.

“Everything will be played out in the coming days.”

Key Takeaway

The next few weeks are pivotal for crypto. Inflation data, the Fed’s decision and dot plot, the Clarity Act vote, and the midterm elections collectively create a high-stakes environment. While liquidity and ETF inflows are positive, the risk of a rate hike, regulatory delay, or political shift could abruptly end the bull market. Investors should closely monitor these five dates and avoid assuming the rally is guaranteed to continue.